It was two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. When Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
Per Opta, in only two games has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
